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Monday, February 1, 2010

Where's the balance?

I'm afraid to look at the news. BHO released his budget proposal today $3.8 trillion. The 2009 budget (proposed by GWB) was $1.182 trillion. The Wall Street Journal online has a good summary you can find here. I like the interactive graphs, especially this one which I've annotated with some other data:


The red horizontal line represents a -3% deficit as a % of GDP threshold. Most economists consider a deficit below this line to be unsustainable. Inflation, skyrocketing interest rates and high unemployment are expected results of large deficits.
At the bottom I put 3 horizontal colored bars, showing (top to bottom) the party of President, House majority, and Senate majority. blue is democrat, red is republican. Note that even under Clinton ('97 to '01), congress was controlled by the republicans. With the 2000 election, Bush takes office, the senate switches to Democrat control and the events of Sept 11, 2001 take place, leading to the wars in Afghanistan and then Iraq. Notice in 2003 when the senate is reclaimed by the Republicans, the deficit begins to head back to zero, then in 2007, both the senate and house switch to Democratic control which reverses the direction of the deficit. 2008 starts the housing meltdown and the bottom falls out in 2009.

One other note: the "recovery" in the projections of 2011 to 2015 are all based on the assumptions that unemployment will go back to ~5%, the economy recovers, healthcare reform passes and Cap and Trade kicks in. It also includes increase revenue from higher taxes on corporations and "rich" households making more than $250K adding $1 trillion to the feds income stream.
What happens when more companies and those with the means to do so, move off-shore to evade the increased taxes. Many couples with combined income over the $250K limit may decide that one income to get below the penalty line is the way to go.

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